Effect of Export on Nigeria's Real Gross Domestic Product (1986 - 2023)

Abstract

This study was aimed at ascertaining the effect of exports on the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Nigeria. It specifically assessed the extent of the effects of oil and non-oil exports on the country's real GDP within the period from 1986 to 2023. The data utilized were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (2023), and a plethora of econometric techniques, such as the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), impulse response function, and Granger causality testing techniques, were applied in estimating the research model. The results indicated a sustained (long run) relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, oil exportwas found to exert a positive significant effect of real GDP in Nigeria, both in the short and long runs; while non-oil exports exerted a negative insignificant effect on real GDP in both runs. However, the Granger casuality indicated no causality from oil exports to real GDP whereas a weakcausality was seen to run from non-oil exports to real GDP. The study advocated for the government and its agencies toensure greater efficiency in the oil and gas sector, especially in enhancing capacity utilization and blocking revenue leakages, and this can contribute to higher economic performance while greater attention should be paid by all tiers of government to the non-oil sector, especially to agriculture, in order to overturn its poor performance; particularly given that non-oil exports has a causal effect on real GDP in Nigeria.